Accrington ST 3-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Gillingham travel to The Crown Ground to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at The Crown Ground this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gillingham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Accrington ST's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Gillingham, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Accrington ST.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Gillingham winning.
It is worth noting that Gillingham have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 45% versus Gillingham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 39% | Gillingham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.44 xG and Gillingham 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.079 / defence 1.047 | Gillingham attack 1.240 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.024. Gillingham have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Accrington ST games / 56 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 38% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 33%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Gillingham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gillingham (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 50% | Gillingham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Crown Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 38% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Accrington ST 1.44 / Gillingham 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.079 / def 1.047 | Gillingham attack 1.240 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gillingham xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at The Crown Ground.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 3 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Crown Ground.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 38% chance of winning, Gillingham a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Record (8 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 3 | Gillingham 4W.
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.08x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.46
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.77
1.33
Gillingham xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.33 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 16D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.23 PPG from 56 outings (17W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.14 PPG, Gillingham on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.46 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
From 9 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 46%, Gillingham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Accrington ST) and 46% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 29% of games; Gillingham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 46% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Accrington ST's recent games and 46% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Gillingham 3-1 at The Crown Ground, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.44 xG and Gillingham 1.33 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Gillingham attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 38% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 33%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 39%, Gillingham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.14 PPG, Gillingham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.