Wycombe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wycombe at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wycombe vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Adams Park plays host to Wycombe versus Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Wycombe (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wycombe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wycombe at Adams Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Adams Park.
Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Wycombe's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Wycombe — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 57% versus Crawley Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 52% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 1.54 xG and Crawley Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.155 / defence 1.039 | Crawley Town attack 0.771 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.256. Data: 54 Wycombe games / 8 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wycombe 49% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 4.17. Wycombe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wycombe as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wycombe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wycombe 40% | Crawley Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 49% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Wycombe 1.54 / Crawley Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.155 / def 1.039 | Crawley Town attack 0.771 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Crawley Town xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wycombe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Wycombe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Crawley Town?
Wycombe 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Wycombe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Crawley Town part of?
Wycombe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 49% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wycombe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wycombe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wycombe and Crawley Town in?
Wycombe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wycombe's attack at 1.16x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.77x) against Wycombe's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.77
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.55
1.01
Crawley Town xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.01 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wycombe's recent record stands at 21W 16D 17L from 54 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wycombe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 24W 7D 23L across 54 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Wycombe against 1.46 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wycombe have managed 11W 7D 8L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 12W 3D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wycombe are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wycombe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 24W 7D 23L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Crawley Town away?
Wycombe's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.54 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wycombe
1
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Wycombe have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-1 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Crawley Town?
Wycombe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 46%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wycombe) and 58% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wycombe have failed to score in 27% of games; Crawley Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wycombe play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wycombe's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wycombe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wycombe's recent games and 58% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Wycombe have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wycombe edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wycombe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.54 xG and Crawley Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Crawley Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 49% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 24%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 52%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.46 PPG, Crawley Town 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wycombe win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.