Stockport County 4-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wigan in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Wigan and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Wigan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stockport County 46% | Wigan 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.976 / defence 1.037 | Wigan attack 1.007 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.128. Wigan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Stockport County games / 77 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Wigan 3.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 60% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Stockport County 1.75 / Wigan 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.976 / def 1.037 | Wigan attack 1.007 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wigan xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Stockport County 4 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 51% chance of winning, Wigan a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 2 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Wigan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.24
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.92
1.18
Wigan xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
4%
22.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.18 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 77 games, going 38W 22D 17L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.17 PPG from 77 outings (21W 27D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 23W 9D 7L across 39 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.05 points per game from 39 outings (8W 17D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 38W 22D 17L in their last 77 games (1.77 PPG), while Wigan have gone 21W 27D 29L in their last 77 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Wigan away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wigan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
From 5 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 59%, Wigan 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stockport County) and 33% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wigan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Stockport County's games and 51% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stockport County's recent games and 33% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wigan tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wigan in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Wigan 4-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.75 xG and Wigan 1.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wigan outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Wigan attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 24% | Wigan 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Wigan 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.