Stockport County 3-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockport County and Peterborough meet at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.70 PPG lead over Peterborough (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Peterborough winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 57% and Peterborough 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.89 xG and Peterborough 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.179 / defence 0.936 | Peterborough attack 0.923 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.166. Data: 89 Stockport County games / 89 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Stockport County 1.89 / Peterborough 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.179 / def 0.936 | Peterborough attack 0.923 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Peterborough xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Peterborough kick off?
Stockport County vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Stockport County 3 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Stockport County vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Peterborough part of?
Stockport County vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 58% chance of winning, Peterborough a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stockport County and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Peterborough?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Peterborough in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.92x) against Stockport County's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 89/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.50
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
Peterborough xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
33.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.01 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County's recent record stands at 43W 25D 21L from 89 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 42L across 89 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 27W 9D 8L from 44 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 11W 7D 26L across 44 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 64%.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 43W 25D 21L in their last 89 games (1.73 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 28W 19D 42L in their last 89 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Peterborough away?
Stockport County's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.05 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Peterborough in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 3-0 on 20 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Peterborough have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Stockport County 3-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Peterborough?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 57%, Peterborough 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Stockport County) and 61% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Stockport County's games and 66% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Stockport County's matches and 61% of Peterborough's.
Do Stockport County and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Peterborough 3-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.89 xG and Peterborough 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.