Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Stockport County (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face AFC Wimbledon.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 14 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 7W 0D 3L at Edgeley Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

AFC Wimbledon's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Stockport County: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for AFC Wimbledon, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.

The historical record gives Stockport County a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 60% versus AFC Wimbledon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 60% | AFC Wimbledon 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.54 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.275 / defence 1.034 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.813 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Stockport County games / 50 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 68% | Draw 18% | AFC Wimbledon 13%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | AFC Wimbledon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | AFC Wimbledon 40%.

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