Stevenage vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Notts County make the trip to Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Notts County have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Notts County have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Notts County 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.50 xG and Notts County 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | Notts County attack 0.679 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 9 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 28% | Notts County 18%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 5.56. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 28% | Notts County 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Stevenage 1.50 / Notts County 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | Notts County attack 0.679 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Notts County xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Notts County kick off?
Stevenage vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Notts County part of?
Stevenage vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 54% chance of winning, Notts County a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stevenage and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Notts County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.98) and Notts County's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (0.68x) against Stevenage's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 55/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.54
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.27
0.77
Notts County xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.77 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 15D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County's form line: 27W 12D 18L from 57 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Stevenage against 1.63 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Notts County have gone 12W 6D 10L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.49 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Notts County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Notts County away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Notts County away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Notts County in 28%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 46% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Notts County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Notts County in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.