Stevenage 0-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 36%, yet in-form Lincoln provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Lincoln to Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stevenage stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Stevenage have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Lincoln have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lincoln are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Stevenage have won 1, Lincoln 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Stevenage 0–0 Lincoln — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Lincoln 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 47% | Lincoln 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stevenage surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Lincoln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.922 / defence 0.834 | Lincoln attack 1.238 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.196. Lincoln have an above-average attack rating of 1.238, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Stevenage's last 49 games and Lincoln's last 49.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.74 | Draw 3.68 | Lincoln 2.75. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Stevenage 36% and Lincoln 36%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 4 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Stevenage 1.24 / Lincoln 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.922 / def 0.834 | Lincoln attack 1.238 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Stevenage and Lincoln level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lincoln xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Lincoln kick off?
Stevenage vs Lincoln kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Stevenage vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Lincoln part of?
Stevenage vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 36% chance of winning, Lincoln a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Lincoln will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Stevenage vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 49 games and Lincoln's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.68
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Lincoln xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.23 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 15D 14L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.63 PPG from 49 outings (22W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.53 PPG, Lincoln on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.49 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Lincoln in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 14D 13L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Lincoln away?
Stevenage's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.71 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lincoln in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 1, Lincoln have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Lincoln 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stevenage) and 38% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stevenage's recent games and 38% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stevenage's recent matches and 62% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lincoln defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Lincoln attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 47%, Lincoln 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.53 PPG, Lincoln 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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