Stevenage 0-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Bolton meet at The Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bolton are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Bolton and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bolton — key trading statistics (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Bolton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.96 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.725 / defence 0.836 | Bolton attack 1.067 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Stevenage games / 85 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Stevenage 0.96 / Bolton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.725 / def 0.836 | Bolton attack 1.067 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Bolton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bolton xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bolton kick off?
Stevenage vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Stevenage vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bolton part of?
Stevenage vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 32% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stevenage and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.72) and Bolton's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.07x) against Stevenage's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 39/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.27
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.02
1.06
Bolton xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.06 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage come into this having played 85 games, going 41W 24D 20L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.79 PPG from 85 outings (44W 20D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Stevenage against 1.79 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stevenage's home form reads 25W 9D 8L across 42 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.52 points per game from 42 outings (18W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.53 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bolton in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 24D 20L in their last 85 games (1.73 PPG), while Bolton have gone 44W 20D 21L in their last 85 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bolton away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Bolton away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bolton in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 5-1 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stevenage
3
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Bolton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when Bolton 5-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Bolton 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stevenage) and 40% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Bolton in 33%; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 45% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stevenage's recent games and 40% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bolton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bolton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Stevenage and Bolton drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.96 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bolton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.72 / defence 0.84 against Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 32% | Draw 31% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Bolton 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.73 PPG, Bolton 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.