Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Wigan (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shrewsbury face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Wigan travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shrewsbury at The Croud Meadow this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at The Croud Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Wigan — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wigan are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Wigan have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Shrewsbury.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Wigan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Wigan trading profile (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 41% | Wigan 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.67 xG and Wigan 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.693 / defence 1.344 | Wigan attack 0.765 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.124. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wigan's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 88 Shrewsbury games / 87 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 21% | Draw 32% | Wigan 47%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Wigan 2.13. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 50% | Wigan 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 21% | Draw 32% | Wigan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Shrewsbury 0.67 / Wigan 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.693 / def 1.344 | Wigan attack 0.765 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Wigan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Wigan xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Wigan kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Wigan part of?
Shrewsbury vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 21% chance of winning, Wigan a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Shrewsbury and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 1 | Wigan 4W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Wigan in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Wigan (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
21%
4.76
32%
3.16
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.82
1.16
Wigan xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.10
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.16 for Wigan, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 19W 18D 50L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 31W 24D 32L from 87 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 0.98 PPG from 43 outings (12W 6D 25L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 12W 14D 17L from 43 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.13 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Wigan in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 19W 18D 50L in their last 87 games (0.86 PPG), while Wigan have gone 31W 24D 32L in their last 87 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 0.98 PPG; Wigan away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Wigan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Wigan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
5
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Wigan have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 44%, Wigan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shrewsbury) and 44% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 44% of games; Wigan in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 56% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Wigan tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wigan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.67 xG and Wigan 1.16 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Wigan attack 0.77 / defence 0.75, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 21% | Draw 32% | Wigan 47%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 41%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wigan's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.