Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Stevenage — this Shrewsbury vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shrewsbury's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.20 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Stevenage, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Shrewsbury 0–1 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 43% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.17 xG and Stevenage 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / defence 1.212 | Stevenage attack 0.726 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 78 games and Stevenage's last 77.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.62 | Draw 3.35 | Stevenage 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 70% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shrewsbury 1.17 / Stevenage 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / def 1.212 | Stevenage attack 0.726 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Stevenage xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage part of?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shrewsbury and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shrewsbury vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.94) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 78 games and Stevenage's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.22
1.05
Stevenage xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.05 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 19W 15D 43L from 77 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 30W 22D 25L across 77 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 11W 5D 21L from their last 37 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 12W 11D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.12 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 19W 15D 43L in their last 77 games (0.94 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 22D 25L in their last 77 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.03 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Stevenage have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 0, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 46%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shrewsbury) and 46% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 40% of games; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 46% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 65% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.17 xG and Stevenage 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 43%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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