Shrewsbury 0-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Rotherham travel to Montgomery Waters Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Montgomery Waters Meadow this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Rotherham — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Rotherham's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Shrewsbury's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rotherham in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 47% versus Rotherham 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shrewsbury 35% | Rotherham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.49 xG and Rotherham 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.806 / defence 1.016 | Rotherham attack 1.002 / defence 0.555. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.265. Rotherham's defence strength of 0.555 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Shrewsbury games / 34 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 14% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 56%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 7.14 | Draw 3.23 | Rotherham 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Rotherham (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 50% | Rotherham 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 14% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 29% | xG Shrewsbury 0.49 / Rotherham 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.806 / def 1.016 | Rotherham attack 1.002 / def 0.555 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.49
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rotherham xG
29%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Rotherham kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Rotherham?
Shrewsbury 0 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Rotherham part of?
Shrewsbury vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 14% chance of winning, Rotherham a 56% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Shrewsbury and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Rotherham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Rotherham in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Rotherham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.81) and Rotherham's defence rating (0.56), the model arrives at 0.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.2%), 0-2 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
14%
7.39
31%
3.24
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.49
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.78
1.29
Rotherham xG
7.39
14%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.45
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
61%
1.64
Win to Nil
4%
26.77
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 21.7 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 0.49 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.29 for Rotherham, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 10D 15L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Rotherham's form line: 23W 6D 5L from 34 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Rotherham are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 11W 3D 2L from 16 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.79 scored and 0.56 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 23W 6D 5L in their last 34 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.56 PPG; Rotherham away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Rotherham in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Shrewsbury won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 2, Rotherham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Rotherham 1-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Rotherham?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shrewsbury 56% BTTS, Rotherham 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Shrewsbury and 12% for Rotherham.
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 12% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 12% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Rotherham tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shrewsbury's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 17, as Shrewsbury and Rotherham drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.49 xG and Rotherham 1.29 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rotherham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Rotherham attack 1.00 / defence 0.56, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 14% | Draw 31% | Rotherham 56%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 35%, Rotherham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rotherham's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.