Shrewsbury 1-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shrewsbury host Portsmouth at Montgomery Waters Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shrewsbury at Montgomery Waters Meadow this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shrewsbury 1.20 PPG, Portsmouth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shrewsbury have won 0, Portsmouth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Portsmouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 50% versus Portsmouth 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 37% | Portsmouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.93 xG and Portsmouth 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.798 / defence 0.924 | Portsmouth attack 0.710 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.251. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Shrewsbury games / 30 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 30%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Portsmouth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Portsmouth's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 50% | Portsmouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Shrewsbury 0.93 / Portsmouth 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.798 / def 0.924 | Portsmouth attack 0.710 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Portsmouth xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth?
Shrewsbury 1 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth part of?
Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 36% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shrewsbury and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Portsmouth?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Portsmouth in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.80) and Portsmouth's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
36%
2.78
34%
2.94
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.75
0.82
Portsmouth xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.3 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.82 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shrewsbury come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 10D 12L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.13 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shrewsbury's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.27 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Portsmouth away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.79 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Portsmouth go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Portsmouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
4
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Portsmouth have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 57%, Portsmouth 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shrewsbury) and 43% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 43%; Portsmouth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 36% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 43% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.93 xG and Portsmouth 0.82 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against Portsmouth attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 34% | Portsmouth 30%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 37%, Portsmouth 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.13 PPG, Portsmouth 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.