Shrewsbury 1-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shrewsbury host Northampton at The Croud Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shrewsbury at 0.70 PPG versus Northampton's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Shrewsbury, 0 for Northampton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Shrewsbury winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Northampton in-play and half-time data (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 40% versus Northampton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 43% | Northampton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.53 xG and Northampton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.871 / defence 1.278 | Northampton attack 0.829 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.158. Northampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Shrewsbury games / 68 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 44% | Draw 25% | Northampton 30%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Northampton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 40% | Northampton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 44% | Draw 25% | Northampton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Shrewsbury 1.53 / Northampton 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.871 / def 1.278 | Northampton attack 0.829 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Northampton xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Northampton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Northampton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 44% chance of winning, Northampton a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shrewsbury and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Northampton?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 2W | Draws 0 | Northampton 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Northampton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.98
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.76
1.23
Northampton xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.23 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 17W 12D 38L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 22W 15D 30L from 67 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 0.94 PPG, Northampton on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.09 PPG from 34 outings (11W 4D 19L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 7W 8D 19L from 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.18 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Northampton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 17W 12D 38L in their last 67 games (0.94 PPG), while Northampton have gone 22W 15D 30L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Northampton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.09 PPG; Northampton away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Northampton runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Northampton won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Northampton?
From 5 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 3, Northampton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Shrewsbury 2-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Northampton?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 41%, Northampton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 41% of games; Northampton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 59% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Northampton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Northampton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury and Northampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury and Northampton finished level at 1-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.53 xG and Northampton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Northampton attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 67/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 44% | Draw 25% | Northampton 30%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 43%, Northampton 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.94 PPG, Northampton 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.