Shrewsbury 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 39%, yet in-form Shrewsbury provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Burton Albion meet at Montgomery Waters Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's home record at Montgomery Waters Meadow: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shrewsbury. A 0.80 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.20 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shrewsbury lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Shrewsbury winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 40% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.72 xG and Burton Albion 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.919 / defence 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 1.232 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.222. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Burton Albion have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Shrewsbury games / 55 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 39%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Burton Albion 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 40% | Burton Albion 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Shrewsbury 1.72 / Burton Albion 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.919 / def 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 1.232 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Burton Albion xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Shrewsbury 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion part of?
Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Shrewsbury and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.92) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (1.23x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
38%
2.63
23%
4.27
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
3.45
1.73
Burton Albion xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.73 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 15W 17D 23L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 28L across 55 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.04 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 10W 8D 9L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 4W 6D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Burton Albion away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.41 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Burton Albion have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won 0-4 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 4, Burton Albion have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 48%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Shrewsbury) and 56% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 33% of games; Burton Albion in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 52% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 56% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.72 xG and Burton Albion 1.73 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 1.23 / defence 1.43, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 39%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 40%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.13 PPG, Burton Albion 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.