Rotherham 3-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rotherham at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 22 as Rotherham welcome Burton Albion to AESSEAL New York Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Rotherham have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham at AESSEAL New York Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rotherham carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Rotherham in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 40% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rotherham 35% | Burton Albion 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 1.531 / defence 0.985 | Burton Albion attack 0.528 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Rotherham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.531 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Rotherham games / 21 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 69% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 11%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Burton Albion 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Rotherham (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 60% | Burton Albion 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 69% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Rotherham 2.06 / Burton Albion 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 1.531 / def 0.985 | Burton Albion attack 0.528 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Burton Albion xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Burton Albion kick off?
Rotherham vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Burton Albion?
Rotherham 3 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Rotherham vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Burton Albion part of?
Rotherham vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 69% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rotherham and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rotherham and Burton Albion in?
Rotherham (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 1.53x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
69%
1.44
20%
5.03
11%
9.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.75
0.68
Burton Albion xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
9.26
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
1%
72.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Rotherham and 0.68 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 5D 3L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rotherham's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Burton Albion away?
Rotherham's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 2.22 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rotherham's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Rotherham
2
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 1, Burton Albion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Burton Albion 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 67%, Burton Albion 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rotherham) and 33% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Rotherham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burton Albion in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rotherham's recent matches and 33% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rotherham vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rotherham's recent games and 33% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Burton Albion 3-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 2.06 xG and Burton Albion 0.68 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.53 / defence 0.98 against Burton Albion attack 0.53 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 69% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 11%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 35%, Burton Albion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.