Rotherham 1-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rotherham host Accrington ST at AESSEAL New York Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rotherham — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rotherham have posted 8W 2D 0L at AESSEAL New York Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Accrington ST's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Rotherham have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rotherham have won 0, Accrington ST 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Accrington ST winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rotherham in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 36% versus Accrington ST 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 36% | Accrington ST 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 2.10 xG and Accrington ST 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 1.404 / defence 0.973 | Accrington ST attack 0.688 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.260. Rotherham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Rotherham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Rotherham games / 28 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 66% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 14%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Accrington ST 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rotherham (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rotherham at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 70% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: AESSEAL New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 66% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Rotherham 2.10 / Accrington ST 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 1.404 / def 0.973 | Accrington ST attack 0.688 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Accrington ST xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Rotherham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Accrington ST?
Rotherham 1 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Rotherham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at AESSEAL New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Accrington ST part of?
Rotherham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 66% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rotherham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Rotherham 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Rotherham and Accrington ST in?
Rotherham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rotherham's attack rating (1.40) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.04
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.94
0.84
Accrington ST xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
2%
58.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Rotherham and 0.84 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rotherham come into this having played 28 games, going 18W 5D 5L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Rotherham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rotherham's home form reads 9W 2D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.25 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 18W 5D 5L in their last 28 games (2.11 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Accrington ST away?
Rotherham's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 2.23 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rotherham
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 1, Accrington ST have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Rotherham 1-0 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 62%, Accrington ST 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rotherham) and 54% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rotherham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Accrington ST in 31%; Accrington ST in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Rotherham's recent matches and 46% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rotherham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Rotherham's matches and 54% of Accrington ST's.
Do Rotherham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rotherham edge out Accrington ST 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Accrington ST 1-0 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 2.10 xG and Accrington ST 0.84 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.40 / defence 0.97 against Accrington ST attack 0.69 / defence 1.35, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 66% | Draw 20% | Accrington ST 14%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 36%, Accrington ST 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.