Portsmouth 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Peterborough at Fratton Park in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 2.10 PPG, Peterborough 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Portsmouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Peterborough in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Peterborough in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 48% versus Peterborough 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 54% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 2.32 xG and Peterborough 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.321 / defence 0.906 | Peterborough attack 0.949 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.111. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Portsmouth games / 6 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 67% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 13%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Peterborough 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 60% | Peterborough 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 67% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Portsmouth 2.32 / Peterborough 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.321 / def 0.906 | Peterborough attack 0.949 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Peterborough xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Portsmouth vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Peterborough?
Portsmouth 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Portsmouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Peterborough part of?
Portsmouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 67% chance of winning, Peterborough a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Portsmouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and Peterborough in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.32) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.01
13%
7.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
3.28
0.96
Peterborough xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
7.65
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
1%
77.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.96 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 15D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (13W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Portsmouth's home form reads 16W 6D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.58 points per game from 26 outings (4W 3D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.08 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 24W 15D 13L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 13W 10D 29L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Peterborough away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.08 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Peterborough in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Portsmouth go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
0
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Peterborough have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Peterborough?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 54%, Peterborough 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Portsmouth and 65% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Peterborough in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 42% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Portsmouth's matches and 65% of Peterborough's.
Do Portsmouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Peterborough 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 2.32 xG and Peterborough 0.96 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Peterborough attack 0.95 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 67% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 13%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 54%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.