Portsmouth 2-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Portsmouth (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fratton Park.
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in League One this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Portsmouth, 1.10 for AFC Wimbledon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 47% versus AFC Wimbledon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | AFC Wimbledon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.31 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.916 / defence 1.087 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.349. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Portsmouth games / 15 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 40% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 33%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 38% | AFC Wimbledon 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 40% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Portsmouth 1.31 / AFC Wimbledon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.916 / def 1.087 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.798 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Portsmouth 2 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 40% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 0.92x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.80x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 17/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.70
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.17 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 6L across 15 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.13 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Wimbledon in 60%.
Last 15 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.57 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Portsmouth
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 43%, AFC Wimbledon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Portsmouth) and 57% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Portsmouth's matches and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Portsmouth and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out AFC Wimbledon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.31 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 17/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 40% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 33%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, AFC Wimbledon 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.13 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.