Port Vale 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bolton at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Port Vale welcome Bolton to Vale Park in League One (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Port Vale — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Port Vale have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Port Vale) versus 1.50 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Bolton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Port Vale 1–2 Bolton — a Bolton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bolton in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 47% versus Bolton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 51% | Bolton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.14 xG and Bolton 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.932 / defence 1.023 | Bolton attack 1.126 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.134. Data: built from Port Vale's last 55 games and Bolton's last 54.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 28% | Bolton 40%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.12 | Draw 3.54 | Bolton 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port Vale 30% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 10 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 32% | Draw 28% | Bolton 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Port Vale 1.14 / Bolton 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.932 / def 1.023 | Bolton attack 1.126 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Bolton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bolton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Bolton kick off?
Port Vale vs Bolton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Port Vale vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Bolton part of?
Port Vale vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 32% chance of winning, Bolton a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Port Vale and Bolton will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Port Vale vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 55 games and Bolton's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.54
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Bolton xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.31 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 18W 12D 25L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 14L across 55 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 10W 5D 11L from their last 26 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 10W 7D 9L across their last 26 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.38 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Bolton
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Bolton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 18W 12D 25L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Bolton have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.35 PPG; Bolton away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bolton in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2025, when Bolton won Bolton 4-0 Port Vale.
Port Vale's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
1
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Bolton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Port Vale 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 38%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Port Vale) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bolton in 35%; Port Vale have failed to score in 27% of games; Bolton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Port Vale's recent matches and 46% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Port Vale's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 77% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.14 xG and Bolton 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Bolton attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 32% | Draw 28% | Bolton 40%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 51%, Bolton 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 10
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →