Plymouth 2-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Shrewsbury travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 League One matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plymouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 2, Shrewsbury 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 47% versus Shrewsbury 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 50% | Shrewsbury 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.51 xG and Shrewsbury 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.286 / defence 0.638 | Shrewsbury attack 0.822 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.232. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Plymouth games / 60 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Shrewsbury 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 20% | Shrewsbury 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Plymouth 1.51 / Shrewsbury 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.286 / def 0.638 | Shrewsbury attack 0.822 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Shrewsbury xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Plymouth vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury part of?
Plymouth vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 58% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Plymouth and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Shrewsbury in?
Plymouth (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Shrewsbury (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.29x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.85
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.15
0.65
Shrewsbury xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
4%
28.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.65 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (18W 17D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 21W 4D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.02 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Shrewsbury away?
Plymouth's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.23 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Plymouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Shrewsbury 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Plymouth 33% BTTS, Shrewsbury 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Plymouth) and 30% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 33%; Shrewsbury in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Plymouth's recent matches and 37% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Plymouth's recent games and 30% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Shrewsbury 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.51 xG and Shrewsbury 0.65 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.29 / defence 0.64 against Shrewsbury attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 50%, Shrewsbury 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.