Plymouth 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Shrewsbury travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shrewsbury's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plymouth 1.40 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 1, Shrewsbury 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 66% versus Shrewsbury 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 62% | Shrewsbury 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.01 xG and Shrewsbury 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.960 / defence 1.136 | Shrewsbury attack 0.542 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.238. Data: 29 Plymouth games / 31 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 40% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 27%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Shrewsbury 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Shrewsbury 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 40% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Plymouth 1.01 / Shrewsbury 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.960 / def 1.136 | Shrewsbury attack 0.542 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Shrewsbury xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Plymouth vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury part of?
Plymouth vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 40% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Plymouth and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Shrewsbury in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
40%
2.48
33%
3.04
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.77
0.76
Shrewsbury xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.76 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 8D 7L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (1W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.97 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 14W 8D 7L in their last 29 games (1.72 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Shrewsbury away?
Plymouth's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.85 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Plymouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Shrewsbury 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Shrewsbury?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 62%, Shrewsbury 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 38% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 31%; Shrewsbury in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Shrewsbury?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Plymouth's games and 54% of Shrewsbury's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Plymouth's recent games and 38% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.01 xG and Shrewsbury 0.76 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Shrewsbury attack 0.54 / defence 0.96, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 40% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 27%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 62%, Shrewsbury 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.