Plymouth 2-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ipswich make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 8W 1D 1L at Home Park — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Ipswich (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Ipswich have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ipswich — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 44% versus Ipswich 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 46% | Ipswich 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.06 xG and Ipswich 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.075 / defence 0.634 | Ipswich attack 1.169 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.207. Ipswich's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plymouth's defence rating of 0.634 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Plymouth games / 55 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 32% | Ipswich 30%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Ipswich 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 0% | Ipswich 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 32% | Ipswich 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Plymouth 1.06 / Ipswich 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.075 / def 0.634 | Ipswich attack 1.169 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ipswich xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Ipswich kick off?
Plymouth vs Ipswich kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 September 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Plymouth vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Ipswich part of?
Plymouth vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 38% chance of winning, Ipswich a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Plymouth and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Ipswich in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ipswich (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.17x) against Plymouth's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.13
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Ipswich xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.89 for Ipswich, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plymouth come into this having played 55 games, going 29W 12D 14L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.65 PPG from 55 outings (24W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Plymouth against 1.65 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Plymouth's home form reads 18W 4D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plymouth are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.55 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Ipswich in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 29W 12D 14L in their last 55 games (1.80 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 24W 19D 12L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Ipswich away?
Plymouth's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.15 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ipswich in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Ipswich have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Plymouth 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 30%, Ipswich 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Plymouth) and 37% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Ipswich in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Plymouth's recent games and 37% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Ipswich tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Ipswich 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Ipswich 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.06 xG and Ipswich 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.07 / defence 0.63 against Ipswich attack 1.17 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 38% | Draw 32% | Ipswich 30%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 46%, Ipswich 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.80 PPG, Ipswich 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.