Plymouth 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Fleetwood Town at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: L W D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 League One fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 0.75. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 25% versus Fleetwood Town 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Plymouth 25% | Fleetwood Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.925 / defence 1.041 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.754 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 0.976. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Plymouth games / 4 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 31% | Fleetwood Town 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Fleetwood Town 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 25% | Fleetwood Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 31% | Fleetwood Town 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Plymouth 1.12 / Fleetwood Town 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.925 / def 1.041 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.754 / def 1.262 | league avg home 0.961 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Fleetwood Town xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 44% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Plymouth and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-W-D-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.20
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.89
0.77
Fleetwood Town xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.77 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Plymouth or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
3
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Plymouth 0-0 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 25%, Fleetwood Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Plymouth) and 50% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Plymouth's recent matches and 50% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 5, as Plymouth and Fleetwood Town drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.77 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 44% | Draw 31% | Fleetwood Town 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 25%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.