Peterborough 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Stevenage meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 3W 3D 4L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Stevenage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 63% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Stevenage 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.55 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.212 / defence 1.043 | Stevenage attack 0.959 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.063. Data: 61 Peterborough games / 60 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 48% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 26%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Stevenage 3.85. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Stevenage 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 48% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Peterborough 1.55 / Stevenage 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.212 / def 1.043 | Stevenage attack 0.959 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Stevenage xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Stevenage kick off?
Peterborough vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Peterborough vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stevenage part of?
Peterborough vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 48% chance of winning, Stevenage a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Peterborough and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Peterborough 2W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.96x) against Peterborough's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.93
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.61
1.06
Stevenage xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.06 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 13D 29L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Peterborough against 1.40 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stevenage away?
Peterborough's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.37 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Peterborough
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
From 7 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Stevenage 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Peterborough) and 30% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 33%; Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games; Stevenage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 37% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Peterborough's recent games and 30% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Stevenage tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.55 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 48% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 26%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Stevenage 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.12 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.