Peterborough 2-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shrewsbury at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shrewsbury are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Shrewsbury 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.18 xG and Shrewsbury 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.147 / defence 1.314 | Shrewsbury attack 0.985 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.048. Shrewsbury's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Peterborough games / 80 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 41%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Shrewsbury 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shrewsbury at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Shrewsbury 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Peterborough 1.18 / Shrewsbury 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.147 / def 1.314 | Shrewsbury attack 0.985 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Shrewsbury xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 March 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury part of?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 32% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Peterborough and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Shrewsbury in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.15x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.98x) against Peterborough's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 33/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.64
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.53
1.35
Shrewsbury xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.35 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough's recent record stands at 25W 13D 41L from 79 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 31L across 79 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Peterborough against 1.29 for Shrewsbury. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 16W 9D 14L from 39 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 9W 12D 18L across 39 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.14 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 25W 13D 41L in their last 79 games (1.11 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 27W 21D 31L in their last 79 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Shrewsbury away?
Peterborough's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.46 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 0-3 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 6, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 44%, Shrewsbury 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Peterborough) and 33% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 36%; Peterborough have failed to score in 36% of games; Shrewsbury in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Peterborough's recent matches and 38% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Peterborough's recent games and 33% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.18 xG and Shrewsbury 1.35 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.31 against Shrewsbury attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 33/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 41%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.11 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.