Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Peterborough, 1.00 for Shrewsbury — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Peterborough, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Shrewsbury — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Peterborough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 65% versus Shrewsbury 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 66% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.52 xG and Shrewsbury 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.095 / defence 1.210 | Shrewsbury attack 0.876 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Data: 78 Peterborough games / 79 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 44% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Shrewsbury 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 60% | Shrewsbury 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 44% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.52 / Shrewsbury 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.095 / def 1.210 | Shrewsbury attack 0.876 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Peterborough 3 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury part of?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 44% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
Record (5 meetings): Peterborough 5W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Shrewsbury in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.09x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.88x) against Peterborough's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 78/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.91
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.75
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.23 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough's recent record stands at 33W 17D 29L from 79 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 44L across 79 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 18W 10D 11L from 39 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 7W 10D 22L across 39 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.86 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 33W 17D 29L in their last 79 games (1.47 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 20W 15D 44L in their last 79 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Shrewsbury away?
Peterborough's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.64 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 0-3 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 6, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Shrewsbury 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Peterborough) and 41% (Shrewsbury). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Peterborough's recent matches and 41% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Peterborough's matches and 41% of Shrewsbury's.
Do Peterborough and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.52 xG and Shrewsbury 1.23 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.09 / defence 1.21 against Shrewsbury attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 44% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.