Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Plymouth travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Plymouth — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Peterborough) versus 1.70 (Plymouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Plymouth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 62% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.60 xG and Plymouth 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.123 / defence 0.920 | Plymouth attack 1.172 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.102. Data: 71 Peterborough games / 25 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 28%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 3.57. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Plymouth 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 1.60 / Plymouth 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.123 / def 0.920 | Plymouth attack 1.172 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Plymouth xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Plymouth kick off?
Peterborough vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Peterborough vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Plymouth part of?
Peterborough vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Plymouth in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.12x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.05
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
Plymouth xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.19 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 24W 14D 33L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 20W 16D 35L from 71 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.21 PPG, Plymouth on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (14W 9D 12L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 7W 7D 21L from 35 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.17 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 24W 14D 33L in their last 71 games (1.21 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 20W 16D 35L in their last 71 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Plymouth away?
Peterborough's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.46 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Plymouth 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 49% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Plymouth in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 37% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 49% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Plymouth tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.60 xG and Plymouth 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 28%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.21 PPG, Plymouth 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.