Peterborough 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lincoln travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough in League One (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Peterborough have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lincoln — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lincoln's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lincoln are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Peterborough's games and 60% of Lincoln's (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Peterborough: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lincoln, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Peterborough 0–0 Lincoln — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Peterborough an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 62% versus Lincoln 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 66% | Lincoln 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.11 xG and Lincoln 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.951 / defence 1.235 | Lincoln attack 1.204 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Lincoln have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.74. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 50 games and Lincoln's last 50.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 4.14 | Draw 4.23 | Lincoln 1.92. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 60% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 6 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Peterborough 1.11 / Lincoln 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.951 / def 1.235 | Lincoln attack 1.204 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Lincoln xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Lincoln kick off?
Peterborough vs Lincoln kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Peterborough vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Lincoln part of?
Peterborough vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 6) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 24% chance of winning, Lincoln a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 50 games and Lincoln's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
24%
4.14
24%
4.23
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.85
1.74
Lincoln xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.74 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 25W 10D 15L from 50 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 13L across 50 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.70 PPG, Lincoln on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 12W 6D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 12W 7D 6L across their last 25 away games, a 1.72 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.48 scored and 0.90 conceded. Peterborough's scoring rate against Lincoln's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lincoln in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
❓ Peterborough vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 25W 10D 15L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.68 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lincoln in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 4 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Aug 2022, when Peterborough won Peterborough 4-0 Lincoln.
Peterborough's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Lincoln?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 3, Lincoln have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 January 2026: Lincoln 5-2 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Lincoln 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Peterborough) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 48% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Peterborough's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Peterborough's recent matches and 60% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.11 xG and Lincoln 1.74 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Lincoln attack 1.20 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 24% | Draw 24% | Lincoln 52%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.70 PPG, Lincoln 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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