Peterborough 3-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Charlton encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Peterborough welcome Charlton to Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 38). Kick-off is Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Peterborough's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Charlton have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charlton are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Charlton and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2025, ended Peterborough 1–2 Charlton — a Charlton win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Charlton in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 64% and Charlton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 64% | Charlton 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Peterborough surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.25 xG and Charlton 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.144 / defence 1.151 | Charlton attack 1.059 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.122. Data: built from Peterborough's last 82 games and Charlton's last 83.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.97 | Draw 3.69 | Charlton 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 60% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).

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