Peterborough 5-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambridge United have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cambridge United's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 1.10 PPG lead over Cambridge United (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Peterborough 0–2 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 45% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 55% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.175 / defence 0.939 | Cambridge United attack 0.665 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.155. Cambridge United's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Peterborough's last 62 games and Cambridge United's last 62.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.90 | Draw 3.51 | Cambridge United 5.28. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 30% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Peterborough 1.39 / Cambridge United 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.175 / def 0.939 | Cambridge United attack 0.665 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cambridge United xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Peterborough 5 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 53% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.18) and Cambridge United's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.67x) against Peterborough's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 62 games and Cambridge United's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.51
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.11
0.72
Cambridge United xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.72 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 31W 9D 22L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 32L across 62 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 17W 6D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 5D 20L across their last 30 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.87 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 31W 9D 22L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 18W 12D 32L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Peterborough's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.90 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Peterborough have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 5-0 Cambridge United on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 37%, Cambridge United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 43% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games; Cambridge United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Peterborough's recent matches and 43% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 43% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Peterborough's recent matches and 67% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 5-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.72 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Cambridge United attack 0.67 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 55%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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