Northampton 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port Vale make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Northampton against 0.80 for Port Vale. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Northampton 2W, Port Vale 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Port Vale 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Port Vale 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.54 xG and Port Vale 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.865 / defence 1.114 | Port Vale attack 0.698 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.150. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Northampton games / 30 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 53% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 22%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Port Vale 4.55. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 70% | Port Vale 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 53% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Northampton 1.54 / Port Vale 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.865 / def 1.114 | Port Vale attack 0.698 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Northampton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Port Vale xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Port Vale kick off?
Northampton vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Port Vale?
Northampton 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Northampton vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Port Vale part of?
Northampton vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 53% chance of winning, Port Vale a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Port Vale?
Record (5 meetings): Northampton 2W | Draws 2 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Northampton and Port Vale in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.86x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.70x) against Northampton's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 79/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.90
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.44
0.89
Port Vale xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Northampton and 0.89 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Northampton's recent record stands at 20W 21D 35L from 76 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 27L across 76 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Northampton against 1.36 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 12W 10D 16L from 38 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 13W 10D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 20W 21D 35L in their last 76 games (1.07 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.21 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Northampton or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Port Vale in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Northampton
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Northampton 0-1 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 47%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 42% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 32%; Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games; Port Vale in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Northampton's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 42% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Port Vale tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Northampton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Northampton 0-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.54 xG and Port Vale 0.89 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Northampton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Port Vale attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 79/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 53% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 22%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Port Vale 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.07 PPG, Port Vale 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.