Lincoln 0-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lincoln at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Exeter City travel to LNER Stadium to take on Lincoln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lincoln's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at LNER Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Exeter City have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Exeter City away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lincoln at 1.10 PPG versus Exeter City's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lincoln, 1 for Exeter City and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 46% versus Exeter City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 43% | Exeter City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.69 xG and Exeter City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.251 / defence 0.937 | Exeter City attack 0.780 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.122. Lincoln carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 83 Lincoln games / 82 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 18%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Exeter City 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 30% | Exeter City 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Lincoln 1.69 / Exeter City 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.251 / def 0.937 | Exeter City attack 0.780 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Exeter City xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Exeter City kick off?
Lincoln vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 March 2025 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Exeter City?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Lincoln vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Exeter City part of?
Lincoln vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 58% chance of winning, Exeter City a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lincoln and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Exeter City?
Record (5 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 3 | Exeter City 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Exeter City in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Exeter City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lincoln's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.05
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.51
0.82
Exeter City xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
30.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.82 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Exeter City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 33W 24D 25L from 82 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 35L across 82 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.50 PPG, Exeter City on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 18W 11D 12L from 41 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 15W 6D 20L across 41 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 33W 24D 25L in their last 82 games (1.50 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 29W 18D 35L in their last 82 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Exeter City away?
Lincoln's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.59 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Exeter City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Exeter City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln's record when hosting Exeter City specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lincoln
4
Draws
2
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Exeter City?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, Exeter City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Exeter City 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 44%, Exeter City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Lincoln) and 51% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games; Exeter City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Exeter City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lincoln's recent matches and 42% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Lincoln's recent games and 51% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Exeter City tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Exeter City finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.69 xG and Exeter City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.25 / defence 0.94 against Exeter City attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 83/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 18%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 43%, Exeter City 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Exeter City's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.50 PPG, Exeter City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.