Lincoln 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.10 PPG, Burton Albion 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lincoln, 0 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 58% versus Burton Albion 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 46% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.11 xG and Burton Albion 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.792 / defence 1.222 | Burton Albion attack 0.742 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.232. Lincoln's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Lincoln games / 27 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 35% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 36%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Lincoln 40% | Burton Albion 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 35% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Lincoln 1.11 / Burton Albion 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.792 / def 1.222 | Burton Albion attack 0.742 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Burton Albion xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.79x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.46
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Burton Albion xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.12 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 11L across 26 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 2W 3D 7L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.19 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 0.75 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Burton Albion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2026, when Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 42%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lincoln) and 42% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 50% of games; Burton Albion in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lincoln's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lincoln's recent games and 42% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Lincoln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Lincoln 1-2 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.11 xG and Burton Albion 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Burton Albion attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 35% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 36%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.19 PPG, Burton Albion 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.