Ipswich 0-2 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rotherham make the trip to Portman Road to face Ipswich in League One, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Ipswich (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich at Portman Road this season: 3W 5D 1L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rotherham have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Rotherham have posted 4W 2D 1L from 7 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rotherham arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Rotherham — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 71% versus Rotherham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 76% | Rotherham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.05 xG and Rotherham 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.169 / defence 1.189 | Rotherham attack 0.959 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.295. Rotherham's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Ipswich games / 17 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 27% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 47%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Rotherham 2.13. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rotherham are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rotherham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 78% | Rotherham 29%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 27% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ipswich 1.05 / Rotherham 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.169 / def 1.189 | Rotherham attack 0.959 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Rotherham xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Rotherham kick off?
Ipswich vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Rotherham?
Ipswich 0 - 2 Rotherham.
Where is Ipswich vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Rotherham part of?
Ipswich vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 27% chance of winning, Rotherham a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ipswich and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Rotherham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Rotherham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Rotherham (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.17x the league average against Rotherham's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.96x) against Ipswich's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
27%
3.72
26%
3.83
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.52
1.48
Rotherham xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.48 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham's form line: 10W 4D 3L from 17 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rotherham are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ipswich.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Rotherham have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.88 scored and 0.76 conceded. Ipswich's scoring rate against Rotherham's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rotherham in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.71 PPG; Rotherham away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rotherham in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rotherham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, Rotherham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when Ipswich 4-3 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Rotherham?
Rotherham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 71%, Rotherham 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Ipswich) and 14% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Ipswich's recent matches and 29% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Ipswich's recent games and 14% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Ipswich 0-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.05 xG and Rotherham 1.48 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.17 / defence 1.19 against Rotherham attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 27% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 47%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 76%, Rotherham 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.