Ipswich 2-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ipswich at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crewe make the trip to Portman Road to face Ipswich in League One, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich at Portman Road this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crewe (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Ipswich's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Crewe — key trading statistics (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 68% and Crewe 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 74% | Crewe 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.75 xG and Crewe 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.094 / defence 1.239 | Crewe attack 0.594 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.330. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Ipswich games / 19 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 55% | Draw 24% | Crewe 21%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Crewe 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 70% | Crewe 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 55% | Draw 24% | Crewe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Ipswich 1.75 / Crewe 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.094 / def 1.239 | Crewe attack 0.594 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Crewe xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Crewe kick off?
Ipswich vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Crewe?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Ipswich vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Crewe part of?
Ipswich vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 55% chance of winning, Crewe a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ipswich and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ipswich and Crewe in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ipswich's attack at 1.09x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.59x) against Ipswich's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.25
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
Crewe xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.98 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Crewe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 6D 7L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 0.63 PPG from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ipswich's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.30 points per game from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.84 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Crewe in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Crewe have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Crewe away?
Ipswich's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.40 PPG; Crewe away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ipswich
1
Draws
0
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, Crewe have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2022, when Crewe 1-1 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Crewe?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 70%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Ipswich) and 30% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ipswich's games and 50% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Ipswich's recent games and 30% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Crewe tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Crewe in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Crewe 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Crewe 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.75 xG and Crewe 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.24 against Crewe attack 0.59 / defence 1.40, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 55% | Draw 24% | Crewe 21%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 74%, Crewe 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.63. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.