Ipswich 6-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charlton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Ipswich's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Charlton's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Charlton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 48% versus Charlton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 48% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 2.05 xG and Charlton 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.590 / defence 0.666 | Charlton attack 0.997 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.086. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.590 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 86 Ipswich games / 87 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 68% | Draw 21% | Charlton 12%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Charlton 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 30% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 68% | Draw 21% | Charlton 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG Ipswich 2.05 / Charlton 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.590 / def 0.666 | Charlton attack 0.997 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Charlton kick off?
Ipswich vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Ipswich 6 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Ipswich vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Charlton part of?
Ipswich vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 68% chance of winning, Charlton a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ipswich and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in?
Ipswich (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.00x) against Ipswich's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 86/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.85
12%
8.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.77
0.72
Charlton xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
8.65
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
66.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.72 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 41W 29D 16L from 86 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 31W 20D 35L across 86 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 24W 15D 4L from 43 games — 2.02 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 13W 10D 20L across 43 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 41W 29D 16L in their last 86 games (1.77 PPG), while Charlton have gone 31W 20D 35L in their last 86 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Charlton away?
Ipswich's home record (2.02 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.02 PPG; Charlton away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Charlton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Charlton?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 44%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ipswich) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ipswich's recent matches and 58% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ipswich's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Charlton tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Charlton 6-0 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 2.05 xG and Charlton 0.72 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.59 / defence 0.67 against Charlton attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 68% | Draw 21% | Charlton 12%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 48%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.