Fleetwood Town 2-3 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Highbury Stadium plays host to Fleetwood Town versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fleetwood Town have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fleetwood Town have posted 1W 3D 6L at Highbury Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Burton Albion are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burton Albion in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fleetwood Town, 2 for Burton Albion and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Fleetwood Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fleetwood Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 64% versus Burton Albion 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 53% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.54 xG and Burton Albion 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.799 / defence 1.186 | Burton Albion attack 0.977 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.119. Fleetwood Town's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Fleetwood Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Fleetwood Town games / 73 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 43% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 32%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Burton Albion 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fleetwood Town at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Burton Albion (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 60% | Burton Albion 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 43% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.54 / Burton Albion 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.799 / def 1.186 | Burton Albion attack 0.977 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Burton Albion xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Fleetwood Town 2 - 3 Burton Albion.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Fleetwood Town 1W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (0.80) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.98x) against Fleetwood Town's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.88
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.84
1.30
Burton Albion xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.30 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fleetwood Town's recent record stands at 14W 27D 32L from 73 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 35L across 73 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Fleetwood Town against 1.07 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fleetwood Town have managed 7W 13D 16L from 36 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 6W 8D 22L across 36 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.16 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 27D 32L in their last 73 games (0.95 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 20W 18D 35L in their last 73 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 0.94 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 2, Burton Albion have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 61%, Burton Albion 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fleetwood Town) and 56% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fleetwood Town's games and 56% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 56% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Fleetwood Town 2-3 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.54 xG and Burton Albion 1.30 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.47, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 43% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 32%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 53%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 0.95 PPG, Burton Albion 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.