Exeter City 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Peterborough meet at St James Park in League One (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 6 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Exeter City's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Peterborough are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Exeter City 1–3 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 42% versus Peterborough 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 43% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.66 xG and Peterborough 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.572 / defence 0.786 | Peterborough attack 1.178 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.166. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.572 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Exeter City have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Data: built from Exeter City's last 76 games and Peterborough's last 75.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 22% | Draw 32% | Peterborough 45%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 4.51 | Draw 3.08 | Peterborough 2.21. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Exeter City's lower xG of 0.66 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Exeter City's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 20% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 18 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 22% | Draw 32% | Peterborough 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 32% (No 68%) | xG Exeter City 0.66 / Peterborough 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.572 / def 0.786 | Peterborough attack 1.178 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Peterborough xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Peterborough kick off?
Exeter City vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 6 February 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Peterborough?
Exeter City 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Exeter City vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Peterborough part of?
Exeter City vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 22% chance of winning, Peterborough a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Exeter City and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (68%).
Will Exeter City vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.18x) against Exeter City's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 76 games and Peterborough's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
22%
4.51
32%
3.08
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.74
1.08
Peterborough xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.08 for Peterborough, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 24W 17D 35L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 40W 13D 23L from 76 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Exeter City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 38 home games (14W 10D 14L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 18W 5D 15L from their last 38 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Exeter City are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 24W 17D 35L in their last 76 games (1.17 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 40W 13D 23L in their last 76 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.37 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Peterborough in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Exeter City won Exeter City 3-0 Peterborough on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Exeter City
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Peterborough?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Peterborough 3-3 Exeter City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 42%, Peterborough 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Exeter City) and 55% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Exeter City's recent matches and 55% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Exeter City's recent games and 55% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Exeter City's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Exeter City defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Peterborough 2-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.66 xG and Peterborough 1.08 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Exeter City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.57 / defence 0.79 against Peterborough attack 1.18 / defence 0.87, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 22% | Draw 32% | Peterborough 45%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Exeter City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 43%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Exeter City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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