Exeter City 1-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 42%, yet in-form Bradford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Exeter City vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 46 sees Bradford travel to St James Park to take on Exeter City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Exeter City at St James Park this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Bradford have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bradford's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Exeter City's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Exeter City, 1 for Bradford and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Bradford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Exeter City in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford in-play tendencies (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 45% versus Bradford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 45% | Bradford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.48 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.914 / defence 1.183 | Bradford attack 0.899 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.177. Data: 91 Exeter City games / 45 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 42% | Draw 25% | Bradford 32%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Bradford 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bradford (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Exeter City 40% | Bradford 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 42% | Draw 25% | Bradford 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Exeter City 1.48 / Bradford 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.914 / def 1.183 | Bradford attack 0.899 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bradford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Bradford kick off?
Exeter City vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Bradford?
Exeter City 1 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Exeter City vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Bradford part of?
Exeter City vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 42% chance of winning, Bradford a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Exeter City and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Bradford?
Record (3 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 1W.
What form are Exeter City and Bradford in?
Exeter City (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.92
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Bradford xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.25 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 91 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 27W 24D 40L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 43W 23D 25L from 91 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Exeter City.
Venue Form
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (16W 13D 16L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 11W 14D 20L from 45 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Exeter City are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.32 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Bradford in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 27W 24D 40L in their last 91 games (1.15 PPG), while Bradford have gone 43W 23D 25L in their last 91 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Bradford away?
Exeter City's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.36 PPG; Bradford away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bradford in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bradford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Exeter City's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Exeter City
1
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Bradford?
From 4 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Exeter City 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Bradford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Exeter City) and 53% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 27% of games; Bradford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 60% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Exeter City's recent games and 53% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Bradford tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bradford in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Exeter City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Exeter City 1-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.48 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Bradford attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 42% | Draw 25% | Bradford 32%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Bradford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.