Doncaster 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Doncaster vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Charlton travel to Eco-Power Stadium to take on Doncaster. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Doncaster — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Eco-Power Stadium this season.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Doncaster 1.10 PPG, Charlton 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Doncaster, 1 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Doncaster trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Charlton trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Doncaster 37% versus Charlton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Doncaster 50% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Doncaster 0.89 xG and Charlton 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Doncaster attack 0.652 / defence 1.475 | Charlton attack 0.757 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.175. Doncaster's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Doncaster's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Doncaster games / 38 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Doncaster 24% | Draw 31% | Charlton 45%. Fair-value odds: Doncaster 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 2.22. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Doncaster 30% | Charlton 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Doncaster vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Eco-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Doncaster 24% | Draw 31% | Charlton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Doncaster 0.89 / Charlton 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Doncaster attack 0.652 / def 1.475 | Charlton attack 0.757 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Charlton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Doncaster xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Doncaster vs Charlton kick off?
Doncaster vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Eco-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Doncaster vs Charlton?
Doncaster 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Doncaster vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Eco-Power Stadium.
What competition is Doncaster vs Charlton part of?
Doncaster vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Doncaster vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Doncaster a 24% chance of winning, Charlton a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Doncaster vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Doncaster and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Doncaster vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Doncaster 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Doncaster and Charlton in?
Doncaster (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Doncaster's attack rating (0.65) and Charlton's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Doncaster's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
24%
4.22
31%
3.19
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.20
1.31
Charlton xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Doncaster and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.31 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Doncaster's recent record stands at 8W 6D 24L from 38 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 18L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Doncaster heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Doncaster have managed 5W 3D 10L from 18 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Doncaster are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Doncaster
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Doncaster and Charlton in coming into this match?
Doncaster have gone 8W 6D 24L in their last 38 games (0.79 PPG), while Charlton have gone 13W 7D 18L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Doncaster at home or Charlton away?
Doncaster's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Doncaster at home: 1.00 PPG; Charlton away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Doncaster or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Doncaster have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Charlton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Doncaster and Charlton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Doncaster
0
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Doncaster have won 0, Charlton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Doncaster and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2022, when Doncaster 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Doncaster and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Doncaster 39%, Charlton 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Doncaster) and 61% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Doncaster have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Doncaster home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Doncaster play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Doncaster's games and 72% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Doncaster vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Doncaster's recent games and 61% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Doncaster and Charlton tend to score early?
Doncaster have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Doncaster 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Doncaster 0-1 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 0.89 xG and Charlton 1.31 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Doncaster fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.65 / defence 1.48 against Charlton attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Doncaster 24% | Draw 31% | Charlton 45%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 50%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Doncaster's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.