Derby 2-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Carlisle encounter.

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Full Analysis

Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Carlisle in League One (matchday 46). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

Derby (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Derby at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Carlisle's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Carlisle's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Derby's favour (2.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Derby, 0 for Carlisle and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Derby 2–0 Carlisle — a Derby win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Carlisle 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Carlisle 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 2.00 xG and Carlisle 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.241 / defence 0.771 | Carlisle attack 0.825 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Derby have a tight defence (rating 0.771), which is pulling Carlisle's projected output down. Data: built from Derby's last 91 games and Carlisle's last 45.

Result probabilities: Derby 66% | Draw 20% | Carlisle 13%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.50 | Draw 4.93 | Carlisle 7.55. The model has a clear lean to Derby (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 60% (last 10 away games).

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