Crewe 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crewe host Bolton at Mornflake Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Crewe have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Crewe at Mornflake Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bolton have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crewe's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crewe have won 0, Bolton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Bolton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bolton in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 50% versus Bolton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 42% | Bolton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 0.95 xG and Bolton 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.689 / defence 1.540 | Bolton attack 0.851 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.212. Crewe's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bolton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Crewe games / 38 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 22% | Draw 27% | Bolton 51%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 1.96. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 40% | Bolton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 22% | Draw 27% | Bolton 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Crewe 0.95 / Bolton 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.689 / def 1.540 | Bolton attack 0.851 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Bolton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Bolton xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Bolton kick off?
Crewe vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Bolton?
Crewe 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Crewe vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Bolton part of?
Crewe vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 22% chance of winning, Bolton a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Crewe and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Crewe and Bolton in?
Crewe (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bolton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.69) and Bolton's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
22%
4.55
27%
3.76
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.59
Bolton xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
4%
22.25
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Crewe and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Crewe and 1.59 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe come into this having played 38 games, going 6W 7D 25L for 0.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (16W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crewe's home form reads 4W 4D 11L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.55 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Bolton in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 6W 7D 25L in their last 38 games (0.66 PPG), while Bolton have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 0.84 PPG; Bolton away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Bolton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crewe
0
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Bolton?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 0, Bolton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Crewe 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 47%, Bolton 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Crewe) and 47% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 37% of games; Bolton in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Crewe's recent matches and 37% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Crewe's recent games and 47% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Bolton tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bolton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Crewe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Crewe 0-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 0.95 xG and Bolton 1.59 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.69 / defence 1.54 against Bolton attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 22% | Draw 27% | Bolton 51%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 42%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.66. Form held, and they took the win. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.