Crewe 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 40%, yet in-form Accrington ST provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crewe vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crewe host Accrington ST at Mornflake Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 League One matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Crewe have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Accrington ST — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Accrington ST — 1.67 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 33% versus Accrington ST 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 0% | Accrington ST 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.15 xG and Accrington ST 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.948 / defence 1.156 | Accrington ST attack 0.856 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.975. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Crewe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Crewe games / 3 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 31%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Accrington ST 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 33% | Accrington ST 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Crewe 1.15 / Accrington ST 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.948 / def 1.156 | Accrington ST attack 0.856 / def 1.269 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Crewe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Accrington ST xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Accrington ST kick off?
Crewe vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Accrington ST?
Crewe 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Crewe vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Accrington ST part of?
Crewe vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 40% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crewe and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Accrington ST in?
Crewe (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.95) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.37
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.11
0.96
Accrington ST xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Crewe and 0.96 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Accrington ST carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 67%.
Last 3 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Crewe or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Accrington ST runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Accrington ST won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crewe
2
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 2, Accrington ST have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Accrington ST 2-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 33%, Accrington ST 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Crewe and 67% for Accrington ST.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 33%; Crewe have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Crewe's recent matches and 67% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Crewe's recent games and 67% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Crewe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Crewe 0-1 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.15 xG and Accrington ST 0.96 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Accrington ST attack 0.86 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 40% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 31%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 0%, Accrington ST 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Accrington ST arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Accrington ST conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.