Crawley Town 3-5 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 0.50 PPG lead over Shrewsbury (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Shrewsbury 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Shrewsbury 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.613 / defence 1.260 | Shrewsbury attack 0.794 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.209. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Crawley Town games / 56 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 43%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Shrewsbury 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Shrewsbury 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Crawley Town 0.91 / Shrewsbury 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.613 / def 1.260 | Shrewsbury attack 0.794 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shrewsbury xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 October 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Crawley Town 3 - 5 Shrewsbury.
Where is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury part of?
Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crawley Town and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.61) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.79x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 9/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
28%
3.63
30%
3.38
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Shrewsbury xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.21 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 7D 24L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 0.95 PPG from 56 outings (14W 11D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Crawley Town's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.77 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 25W 7D 24L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 14W 11D 31L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Shrewsbury away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 57%, Shrewsbury 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 43% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 36% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 43% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Crawley Town 3-5 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Shrewsbury 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shrewsbury outscored their 1.21 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.61 / defence 1.26 against Shrewsbury attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 9/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 30% | Shrewsbury 43%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Shrewsbury 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.