Crawley Town 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League One, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crawley Town's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Burton Albion (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Crawley Town against 0.60 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Burton Albion 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 59% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.898 / defence 1.238 | Burton Albion attack 0.767 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.151. Data: 23 Crawley Town games / 70 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Burton Albion 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 40% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Crawley Town 1.13 / Burton Albion 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.898 / def 1.238 | Burton Albion attack 0.767 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burton Albion xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Crawley Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Burton Albion?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Crawley Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Crawley Town vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crawley Town and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Burton Albion in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.90) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.77x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 23/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.36
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.23
1.09
Burton Albion xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.09 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 28W 11D 31L from 70 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 38L across 70 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crawley Town by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 15W 5D 14L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 6W 11D 17L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 28W 11D 31L in their last 70 games (1.36 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 18D 38L in their last 70 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.47 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Burton Albion?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Burton Albion have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Crawley Town 1-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 56%, Burton Albion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 44% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.13 xG and Burton Albion 1.09 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 59%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.