Crawley Town 0-2 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 45%, yet in-form Crawley Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Bolton in League One, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town's home record at Broadfield Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bolton have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 0.80 PPG lead over Bolton (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bolton — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 58% versus Bolton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Bolton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Bolton 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.802 / defence 1.163 | Bolton attack 0.970 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.281. Data: 6 Crawley Town games / 52 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 27% | Bolton 45%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.22. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 50% | Bolton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 27% | Bolton 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Crawley Town 1.08 / Bolton 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.802 / def 1.163 | Bolton attack 0.970 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Bolton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bolton xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Bolton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Bolton?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Bolton.
Where is Crawley Town vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Bolton part of?
Crawley Town vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Bolton a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crawley Town and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Bolton in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Bolton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.97x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 6/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
28%
3.59
27%
3.66
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.53
1.45
Bolton xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.45 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 26W 8D 21L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton's form line: 28W 13D 14L from 55 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.76 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (12W 4D 10L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.78 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Bolton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 26W 8D 21L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Bolton have gone 28W 13D 14L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Bolton away?
Bolton's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.54 PPG; Bolton away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bolton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Bolton?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Bolton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Bolton 4-3 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 35%; Bolton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 46% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Bolton tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bolton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Bolton 1.45 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Bolton attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 27% | Bolton 45%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.56 PPG, Bolton 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.