Cheltenham 0-5 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jonny-Rocks Stadium plays host to Cheltenham versus Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 7 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cheltenham's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham's home record at Jonny-Rocks Stadium: 5W 2D 2L from 9 League One appearances (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambridge United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cheltenham's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Cambridge United in 89%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 68% and Cambridge United 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 53% | Cambridge United 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.82 xG and Cambridge United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 1.026 / defence 1.074 | Cambridge United attack 0.862 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.324. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Cheltenham games / 20 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 51% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 26%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Cambridge United 3.85. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 67% | Cambridge United 89% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 51% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Cheltenham 1.82 / Cambridge United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 1.026 / def 1.074 | Cambridge United attack 0.862 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cambridge United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Cambridge United kick off?
Cheltenham vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 7 December 2021 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Cheltenham 0 - 5 Cambridge United.
Where is Cheltenham vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Cambridge United part of?
Cheltenham vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 51% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cheltenham and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Cambridge United in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cambridge United's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.86x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.35
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
3.05
1.23
Cambridge United xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
24.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.23 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 7W 6D 6L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.16 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Cheltenham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cheltenham are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.37 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Cambridge United in 74%.
Last 19 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Cambridge United away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.89 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 0-5 on 7 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 4, Cambridge United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cheltenham 1-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Cambridge United?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Cheltenham, 89% for Cambridge United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cheltenham and 67% for Cambridge United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Cambridge United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cheltenham's games and 89% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cheltenham's matches and 67% of Cambridge United's.
Do Cheltenham and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Cheltenham 0-5 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.82 xG and Cambridge United 1.23 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Cambridge United attack 0.86 / defence 1.54, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 51% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 26%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 53%, Cambridge United 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambridge United's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.42 PPG, Cambridge United 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.