Cheltenham 1-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Jonny-Rocks Stadium to face Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cheltenham have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Accrington ST (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Accrington ST are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Accrington ST in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cheltenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 64% and Accrington ST 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 46% | Accrington ST 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.44 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.801 / defence 1.176 | Accrington ST attack 0.901 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.262. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.530 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cheltenham games / 11 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 40% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 35%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Accrington ST (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Accrington ST 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 40% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Cheltenham 1.44 / Accrington ST 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.801 / def 1.176 | Accrington ST attack 0.901 / def 1.530 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Accrington ST xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Cheltenham 1 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST part of?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 40% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cheltenham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.80) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.90x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
40%
2.52
25%
3.94
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.78
1.34
Accrington ST xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.34 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 5L across 11 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.45 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Accrington ST in 64%.
Last 11 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Accrington ST away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.40 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cheltenham
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 3, Accrington ST have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 60%, Accrington ST 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cheltenham) and 60% (Accrington ST).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cheltenham's games and 60% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cheltenham's recent games and 60% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Accrington ST 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Accrington ST 1-0 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.44 xG and Accrington ST 1.34 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Accrington ST attack 0.90 / defence 1.53, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 40% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 35%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 46%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Accrington ST's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.09 PPG, Accrington ST 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.