Charlton 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Sunderland travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 6W 1D 3L at The Valley — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.00 PPG, Sunderland 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Charlton, 0 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Sunderland 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 50% | Sunderland 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.52 xG and Sunderland 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.946 / defence 1.273 | Sunderland attack 1.024 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.253. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Charlton games / 35 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 40%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 20% | Sunderland 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Charlton 1.52 / Sunderland 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.946 / def 1.273 | Sunderland attack 1.024 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sunderland xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Sunderland kick off?
Charlton vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Sunderland?
Charlton 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Charlton vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Sunderland part of?
Charlton vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, Sunderland a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Charlton and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Charlton and Sunderland in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
35%
2.86
25%
3.97
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.15
1.63
Sunderland xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charlton and 1.63 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 6D 17L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.65 PPG from 34 outings (16W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 7W 3D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.74 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 34 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 11W 6D 17L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Sunderland away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Charlton 0-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Sunderland?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 35%, Sunderland 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 71% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Charlton's recent matches and 59% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Charlton's matches and 71% of Sunderland's.
Do Charlton and Sunderland tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 37, as Charlton and Sunderland drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.52 xG and Sunderland 1.63 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Sunderland attack 1.02 / defence 1.43, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 40%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Sunderland 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.