Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charlton (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Shrewsbury.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shrewsbury in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Charlton: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Shrewsbury, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Charlton winning.
The historical record gives Charlton a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Shrewsbury 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.48 xG and Shrewsbury 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.880 / defence 0.824 | Shrewsbury attack 0.898 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.179. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Charlton games / 71 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Shrewsbury 4.55. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 70% | Shrewsbury 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Charlton 1.48 / Shrewsbury 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.880 / def 0.824 | Shrewsbury attack 0.898 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Charlton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Shrewsbury xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Charlton 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Charlton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 51% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Charlton and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Record (7 meetings): Charlton 4W | Draws 2 | Shrewsbury 1W.
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.35
0.87
Shrewsbury xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
5%
19.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Charlton and 0.87 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 27D 23L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shrewsbury's form line: 18W 14D 39L from 71 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.49 PPG from 35 outings (13W 13D 9L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 6W 9D 20L from 35 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.86 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 21W 27D 23L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 18W 14D 39L in their last 71 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Charlton's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.49 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Shrewsbury runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 69%, Shrewsbury 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Charlton) and 43% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Charlton's recent matches and 40% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.48 xG and Shrewsbury 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Shrewsbury attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.